Entry long time coming…
Part I:
President Bush has been briefed on the end of cheap oil… have you?
We will soon start seeing ads put out by Chevron for its new campaign: Will You Join Us. Rather than advertising some new “high-performing” gasoline, this campaign is a public admission of the end of cheap oil and a PR move designed to get YOU, Mr. and Ms. Public, to consider the oil companies your allies as the shit hits the fan over the next few years. Get ready for a probable economic downturn this winter.
For those of you still in the dark (I blogged about peak oil a few months ago), here it is in a nutshell: there’s strong evidence indicating that the globe may have reached peak oil, which means we’ve pumped out half of the world’s known supplies. While one’s first reaction is “So? That means one half is left,” the bad news is that after peak, oil is much more difficult and expensive to extract and refine. Thus, the oil we’ve been using for the past 70+ years has been the light, sweet, “gusher”, cheap stuff. The explosively exponential rise in human population over the past 70 years has been predicated on cheap, easily accessible oil. In fact, economic growth as we know it is dependent upon cheap energy. Think of everything from auto transportation, small and large-scale shipping, plastics, medical infrastructure, industrial agriculture that uses huge quantities of petroleum-based fertilizers and pesticides, etc. Did you know that for every one calorie the average American consumes, more than ten calories of fossil energy went into putting it on her plate? Well, things are about to change radically.
Here’s the kicker - there is no combination of renewable and alternative fuels that could possibly ramp us up to present levels of consumption in the short period of time we have. Solar, wind, hydropower, biomass/biodiesel, all of these are great on a small-scale basis, within your property, neighborhood or small town. But none of them are going to deliver what cheap oil does with the short time and the large scale we have. I’ve noticed many people, while willing to acknowledge the fact of peak oil, seem to have this vague notion that magically we’re just going to roll on over to alternative fuel sources. There’s this dangerous sort of blind faith that we’ll all be taken care of. Upon research and honest reflection, though, a myriad of serious questions arise. Do we really think we’re going to convert 200 million or so cars in the U.S. overnight? Do we really think that we have the land that it takes to grow the amount of biomass necessary to fuel existing infrastructure?
As far as other fuels, coal is the last thing we want to be burning more of what with global warming, nuclear is a really pricey and scary option, natural gas has peaked, and hydrogen is a joke (it’s a fuel carrier, not a fuel source). Still think that the market will save us? Read this and think about energy return on investment (EROI). My point is that we’re undoubtedly going to experience a scaling back and the only question is one of severity. Will there be a massive crash or more of a “long emergency”?
The more I read and talk with others, the more my entire perspective on the future shifts. I am firmly convinced that life, culture, society, and the world as we know them will not look like this five/ten years from now. Peak oil is what I refer to as a “mother issue”, meaning that other issues fall into line behind it; it makes a lot of usual concerns secondary in comparison. For example - Environmental: Peak oil is the crowning issue here. If Americans in the Northwest are freezing through a winter ten years from now due to inaccessible heating fuels, they’re not going to think twice about chopping down the last of the old growth trees or using dirty-burning coal to cook their food. - Political: The invasion of Iraq, the U.S.’ buddy-buddy relationship with Saudi Arabia, China’s expanding miltary and alliance with Venezuela - all of these point back to securing precious remaining oil supplies. This is the “perpetual warfare in our lifetimes” that Bush and Cheney were talking about. This and the implementation of neoliberal economies are the real agendas underlying the war on terrorism. - Societal: The U.S. government/neo-cons/FBI/CIA know what’s (not) coming down the pipeline. The Patriot Act, the bankruptcy bill, the robbing of the Treasury… all of these are steps towards ensuring that the American citizenry will be as controlled, helpless and compliant as possible when things really start to turn. We cannot depend on our national government, only on local community.
The end of cheap energy is not a maybe; it’s not a conspiracy theory, and its ramifications are already starting to be felt. A really great book to start with, for those seeking more info, is Richard Heinberg’s Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World. Also check out the book’s web site. Read Here Comes the Nutcracker. In addition, I furl (publically bookmark) web sites and articles about energy and peak oil all the time - keep up here.
Part II:
In light of all of this, the recommendation is a focus on localization and community-building; what Heinberg refers to as “building lifeboats”. The past few months, I’ve been involved with a local group we call Portland Peak Oil to discuss and prepare for the consequences of the coming end of cheap oil. The core people met through Meetup.com about a year ago and I joined when there were 10 people or so in April. In early June, a number of us went to see Mike Ruppert of From the Wilderness speak (for three hours about upcoming peak oil-induced global conflict), and I got to make an announcement from the stage about our local group. A week later at our monthly meeting, 40+ people showed.
Since mid-June, we in the core circle have begun forming working groups like ‘Preparedness’ and ‘Public Outreach’ and discussed the formulation of a steering committee to manage group decisions and business. A local church donated use of their huge dining hall every Wednesday night and we’ve decided to take advantage of the free space by holding events, speakers, film showings and the like there each week. When we decided to use a laptop, a projector, and a white sheet on the wall to show “The End of Suburbia”, a peak oil documentary, free last Wed. evening, people in the group tacked fliers all over the city, posted to online community calendars, and one of us even got Portland-based talk show host Thom Hartmann to announce the showing on KPOJ, the local Air America affiliate. The result: over 90 people came to the film and many signed up to return and get involved.
I’ll doing the bulk of the work to launch a web site at portlandpeakoil.org - this is my major July project. The group is growing so quickly that we core members are racing to keep up! New members who have already heard of peak oil are so excited when they come to meetings because this is a terribly scary future we’re facing and it’s a relief to 1) know that others are knowledgeable and proactive and 2) that there’s lots of work, not just worrying, to be done. Topics of interest include permaculture, natural building, pooling skills, getting to know one another, supporting local vendors, our financial futures, and more. I’ll be blogging about group activity every so often; stay tuned.
Those in the Portland area wanting to get involved, e-mail me and I’ll send you details about our e-mail list and upcoming meetings and activities!